From the Daily Caller: CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Wednesday that Democrats are historically lagging in the polling with just one year ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats are currently leading Republicans by two points in the generic congressional margin, which is historically significantly lower than the percentages ahead of the 2006 and 2018 midterms elections when a Republican president held office, Enten said on “CNN News Central,” citing his own aggregate data. In July 2006 and July 2017, Democrats held a seven-point ahead of the midterms.
“Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot … Look at where we are now, Democrats are ahead, but by just two points,” Enten said. “Look at where Democrats were already ahead by in 2017, they were ahead by 7 points. How about 2005 on the congressional ballot? Ahead by 7 points, ahead by 7 points, and now they’re only ahead by 2 points? That lead is less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July. In those years, the year before the midterm elections. Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.”
Enten pointed out that, unlike in 2005 or 2017, Republicans are ahead by 12 points in their chances of picking up more seats in the House.
WATCH:
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
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