From Washington Examiner: A nonpartisan election handicapper has updated ratings for three states in the 2024 presidential election cycle, shifting them toward Democrats after Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee for president.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving Georgia into the “toss-up” category, from “leans Republican.” And Minnesota and New Hampshire are now rated as “likely Democratic,” a shift from “leans Democratic.”
Georgia has 16 electoral votes, Minnesota has 10, and New Hampshire has four. The election projector now shows Democrats with 226 electoral votes from states at a minimum leaning Democrat, while Republicans have 235 electoral votes from states that at least lean Republican. There are currently 77 votes in play from “toss-up” states.
In rationalizing the change in ratings, the group said in the weeks since Harris “emerged as Democrats’ standard-bearer, she has ‘reset’ the electoral map to some degree” after polling better than President Joe Biden before he ended his 2024 run. Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN), Harris’s newly announced running mate, state also shifted toward the Democratic ticket.
🚨 #New Crystal Ball Rating changes
Georgia – Lean 🔴 ➡️ Toss up 🟡
Minnesota – Lean 🔵 ➡️ Likely 🔵
New Hampshire – Lean 🔵 ➡️ Likely 🔵Election comes down to WI MI PA GA AZ & NV
https://t.co/LI6A5pYewu pic.twitter.com/eLOqniNo7a
— ًً (@politicalplayer) August 7, 2024
J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote the following:
“It appears that at least in the short term, Harris has reversed the slippage — or has at least been able to stop the bleeding — that Democrats have seen since the Biden-Trump debate in June… Looking nationally, Harris currently leads in all national polling aggregators. When Biden left the race, he was generally polling behind Trump. Harris making the race into more of a 50-50 proposition means we should adjust our own ratings to better reflect the state of the race.”
FLASHBACK: Biden won Georgia and Pennsylvania in 2020. However, in June, Georgia’s rating shifted from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” following Biden’s poor debate performance. Simultaneously, Pennsylvania’s rating changed from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up” and has remained unchanged since.
The Dennis Michael Lynch Podcast is available below. Never miss an episode. Subscribe to the show by downloading The DML News App or go to Apple Podcasts.
