From the Washington Examiner: Democrats are worried the polls may be underestimating former President Donald Trump‘s support, which they did in 2016 and 2020, as he takes the lead in three of the key Sun Belt states, according to a new poll.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona 50%-45%, Georgia 49%-45%, and North Carolina 49%-47%.
Trump’s leads in Arizona and North Carolina are reversals from the last polls in those states from the pollster in August, which showed Harris leading Trump by five points, 50%- 45%, in Arizona and by two points, 49%- 47%, in North Carolina. Since the last poll, Trump has maintained a 4% lead in the Peach State.
The former president also maintains leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average for all three states, with North Carolina being his smallest lead, 47.8%-47.4%. In the national polling average, Harris leads Trump, 49.4%-47.2%.
The Hill published a new report Monday morning titled, “Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump.” The report reads:
Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.
After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by then-President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another election night surprise.
They hope that Harris can overperform the polls herself by driving young voters and Black and Latino voters to the polls in big numbers, but acknowledge that whether a larger-than-expected pro-Harris coalition emerges is an untested hypothesis.
Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the “blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
New poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina: “Trump’s path to victory begins in the Sun Belt; if he wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more.” pic.twitter.com/l32V4VTZiq
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2024
✅ Arizona
✅ Georgia
✅ North Carolina“Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find”
New polls from The @nytimes & Siena College showed Donald J. Trump ahead in Arizona & leading in tight races in Georgia, North Carolina. https://t.co/5AzJnYLkL7
— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) September 23, 2024
🇺🇲 2024 GE: NYT/@SienaResearch
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 50% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 45%Last poll (8/15) – 🔵 Harris +5
——
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%Last poll – 🔵 Harris +2
——
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 45%Last poll – 🔴 Trump +4
——
#1 (3.0/3.0) |… pic.twitter.com/oItjnaKpFJ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 23, 2024
Breaking News: Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in Arizona and is leading in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina, a Times/Siena poll shows. https://t.co/KPcD13vkUe
— The New York Times (@nytimes) September 23, 2024
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