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Polling expert Nate Silver’s model now gives Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, following a NYT-Siena College poll showing Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point.
While Harris has led in several national and swing state polls, Silver noted this poll signals a shift in momentum toward Trump. The poll also found more voters view Harris as “too liberal” than those who see Trump as “too conservative.”
Silver’s model shows Harris with a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College, despite leading Trump by 2.5 points in national polls.
“A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver wrote in the update at 11 a.m. on Sunday, according to Fox News.
On Wednesday, Nate Silver reported that Trump’s Electoral College chances rose from 52.4% to 58.2% since late August, while Harris’ dropped from 47.3% to 41.6%. Silver added that a strong debate performance from Harris could offset the impact of the NYT poll.
Kamala’s Honeymoon has been over for weeks, but now the MSM might be forced to finally acknowledge it.
Nate Silver’s model gives Trump a 63.8% to 36% chance of winning, a new high.
NYT/Siena College gives Trump a 1 point edge, 48% to 47%, unchanged since July when Kamala was… pic.twitter.com/SFaZxGIWwZ
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) September 8, 2024
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