As we enter the new year, some supporters argue that the Trump administration’s strong economic momentum from 2025, including a 4.3% GDP growth rate in the third quarter and inflation cooling to 2.7%, sets the stage for a prosperous 2026 with continued record stock highs and business confidence.
They also point to border security achievements, such as illegal migrant crossings dropping to their lowest levels in decades and zero releases for seven months, as evidence of an effective policy that will yield long-term stability and reduced crime in the next year. Optimists highlight international successes such as ceasefires in Gaza and Ukraine, suggesting Trump’s “peace through strength” approach will foster global trade and energy independence, further boosting U.S. growth in 2026. For instance, tariff revenues reaching $200 billion in 2025 are seen as a cash windfall that could fund infrastructure and tax cuts, like no taxes on tips or overtime, propelling consumer spending. A 20% decline in murders nationwide is cited as proof that law-and-order initiatives will maintain public safety and voter support through the midterms.
On the other hand, critics contend that the administration’s chaotic tariff policies and government shutdowns in 2025 have already slowed GDP to around 2% for the year, potentially leading to stagnation or recession in 2026 if uncertainty persists. They warn that rising unemployment to 4.6% and approval ratings 13 points underwater signal a decline in public trust, which could amplify midterm losses if economic pain lingers. Political purges and mass federal layoffs are viewed as disruptive, possibly hampering government efficiency and alienating key voters ahead of the 2026 elections.
For example, ongoing legal battles over tariffs and emergency powers might create more business anxiety, counteracting any stimulus from rate cuts or policy shifts. Skeptics also fear that backing off on aggressive immigration or tariff stances to boost the economy could alienate the base, causing the administration to lose momentum before the midterms.
We want to ask you, the reader: do you believe the Trump administration will have a successful 2026? Answer in our poll below and comment your thoughts on how the new year will look for President Trump and his team.
If you cannot see the poll, click here.
