Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) leads among young Democratic voters in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary, a new survey shows.
The Yale Youth Poll released Monday shows Ocasio-Cortez holding a double-digit lead over Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and other potential contenders among Democrats under 35 in a hypothetical 2028 primary.
Among registered Democrats ages 18–22, Ocasio-Cortez leads with 30%, followed by Harris at 20% and Newsom at 12%. For ages 23–29, she climbs to 35%, with Harris at 15% and Newsom at 14%. Among Democrats 30–34, Ocasio-Cortez holds 29%, while Newsom has 15% and Harris has 14%.
Ocasio-Cortez’s support drops among older Democrats, with middle-aged voters favoring Harris and seniors leaning toward Newsom, while Pete Buttigieg outperforms her in those groups. Among Democrats ages 35–44, 30% back Harris, 25% support Ocasio-Cortez, 16% choose Newsom, and 8% favor Buttigieg. His support among Democrats under 35 ranges from 8% to 12%.
Democrats ages 45–64 are more split: 23% favor Harris, 22% back Newsom, 15% choose Buttigieg, and 11% support Ocasio-Cortez. Among Democrats 65 and older, Newsom dominates with 38%, followed by Buttigieg at 18%, Harris at 11%, Shapiro at 6%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 5%.
Across all age groups, seniors boost Newsom to the top of Democrats’ overall preference list: 25% back the California governor, followed by Harris at 18%, Ocasio-Cortez at 16%, Buttigieg at 14%, and Shapiro at 4%.
The poll comes as Democrats face growing speculation and uncertainty over who their next presidential standard-bearer will be. With the 2028 race still years off, no Democrat has officially launched a campaign, but several have stoked speculation. Newsom said in October he’d “be lying” if he claimed he wasn’t thinking about a run. Harris, who lost her 2024 bid to President Trump, likewise hinted at a 2028 comeback, telling the BBC, “I am not done,” and that she could “possibly” still become president.
The survey, conducted Oct. 29–Nov. 11, included 3,426 registered voters, 1,706 of whom were under 35. The margin of error is 1.7 points overall and 2.4 points for younger respondents.
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