Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) holds a narrow lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) in the New York governor’s race, according to a Manhattan Institute poll released Tuesday, showing Stefanik at 43% to Hochul’s 42%—a statistical tie with a slight edge for the Republican.
9% of respondents backed another candidate, and 7% were undecided. However, the results mark a sharp turnaround from August, when a Siena College poll showed Hochul leading Stefanik by 14 points.
“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule,” Bernadette Breslin, Stefanik’s campaign spokesperson said in a statement. “Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York.”
Stefanik made similar comments during a mid-September appearance on Fox News’s Fox and Friends, stating: “Well, Kathy Hochul is the worst governor in America, and it was only a matter of time before she bent the knee for this raging antisemite communist.”
🚨WOW! SHOCK New York governor 2026 poll finds Republicans have a chance at WINNING
🔴 Elise Stefanik: 43% (+1)
🔵 Kathy Hochul: 42%🔴 Stefanik: 43% (+6)
🔵 Anthonio Delgado: 37%Can Rep. Stefanik really flip New York red? 🔥
Manhattan Institute (R) | 10/22-26 | N=300RV pic.twitter.com/EHtkYJ717x
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 28, 2025
The Manhattan Institute survey polled 300 likely voters statewide from Oct. 22–26 and carries a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
