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From The Hill: The ongoing war in Gaza has turned historical Arab American support for Democratic candidates on its head, with 46 percent of likely voters polled by the Arab American Institute saying they would support former President Trump, while 42 percent said they would back Vice President Harris.
Normally, Democrats have a 2-to-1 advantage among Arab Americans in elections. Still, Wednesday’s poll found Harris is running 18 points behind the Arab American support for President Biden in the 2020 election. Six in 10 Arab Americans voted for Biden in 2020. Wednesday’s findings are within the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.5 points.
“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” the poll document reads. “With little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Gaza and now Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.”
In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, Arab American support for Democrats cratered, falling from 40 percent of Arab Americans identifying as Democrats in April 2023 to 23 percent saying they were Democrats last October. Less than 1 in 5 Arab Americans polled said they would vote for Biden last October.
Currently, 38 percent of Arab Americans now identify as Democrats and 42 percent say they would vote for Kamala Harris.
The new poll also revealed that an equal number, 38 percent, of Arab Americans currently identify as Republicans – up from 23 percent in April.
The report explains that the Trump campaign’s efforts to reach Arab-American voters is being led by Massad Boulos, who is Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law.
In November’s election, many Arab Americans may not even vote. The new poll revealed that only 63 percent said they were enthusiastic about voting – compared to around 80 percent who normally turn out to vote.
The poll first notes that Trump and Harris are virtually tied, 42% to 41%, with Arab American voters. However, among those who report they are very likely to vote, Trump leads Harris 46% to 42%.
BREAKING
New AAI Poll: The Arab American Vote 2024KEY FINDINGS
– Trump and Harris in a virtual tie with Arab American voters (42-41%).
– Only 63% are enthusiastic about voting.
– 81% view Gaza as important in determining their vote.FULL POLL⬇️https://t.co/yzzkKyig0L
— Arab American Institute (@AAIUSA) October 2, 2024
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