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From Breitbart: Statistician Nate Silver on Friday released his latest 2024 presidential election forecast, which shows former President Donald Trump at 61.5 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 38.3 percent.
The rise in Trump’s chances of 15.4 percent is a flip from Silver’s forecast on August 23, when Harris’s chances of winning were at 53.5 percent and Trump’s at 46.1 percent. Those numbers came right after the Democratic National Convention, when the vice president was still enjoying a mainstream media honeymoon.
A few weeks have passed since then, and Harris has not held a single press conference, opting for one sit-down interview with running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) on the Democrat-friendly network CNN.
Wow.
Trump’s lead widens in Nate Silver’s model.
🔴 Trump – 62%
🔵 Harris – 38%Trump is now a bigger favorite to win the electoral college, than Harris is to win the popular vote. pic.twitter.com/XydCzEbRih
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 6, 2024
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 23
🟦 Harris: 53.5%
🟥 Trump: 46.1%September 6
🟥 Trump: 61.5%
🟦 Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona – 🔴… pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
However, conservative activist Philip Anderson is warning Trump supporters not to fall for it.
“Nate Silver is definitely trying to make Trump supporters complacent. (Harris has a slight advantage in Michigan & Wisconsin). DO NOT FALL FOR THIS. Every Trump supporter in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina needs to register 5 people to vote for Trump. Do this and we win the election guaranteed,” Anderson wrote.
Nate Silver is definitely trying to make Trump supporters complacent. (Harris has a slight advantage in Michigan & Wisconsin).
DO NOT FALL FOR THIS
Every Trump supporter in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina needs to register 5 people to vote for Trump.
Do…
— Philip Anderson (@VoteHarrisOut) September 6, 2024
Bill Mitchell, another conservative, is also warning that this generous forecast might be a trick.
“Let me be clear. While I’m glad to see Trump doing well here, I DO NOT TRUST NATE SILVER. He is a a Democrat. He could be doing this just to set up a fake redemption arc for Kamala into the close. Never let up. Work work work,” Mitchell wrote.
Let me be clear. While I’m glad to see Trump doing well here, I DO NOT TRUST NATE SILVER. He is a a Democrat. He could be doing this just to set up a fake redemption arc for Kamala into the close.
Never let up. Work work work. pic.twitter.com/OeDVnT3Dk5
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) September 6, 2024
Today’s numbers.
More mediocre swing state polls for Harris, and her lead in national polls is down a tick, too, to 3.0 points.
Note that these polling averages aren’t affected by convention bounce stuff.
More coming soon.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/RAr5mI22uH
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024
I’d also note that Harris’s raw polling averages have DECLINED in most swing states since the start of the DNC. This data is NOT subject to the convention bounce adjustment. She’s had a run of pretty mediocre state polling. pic.twitter.com/smiCFiznQW
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Trump leading by one point, with 47 percent support, compared to 46 percent for Harris.
Election 2024: Trump 47%, Harris 46%
Just two months before Election Day, the race for the White House is now a dead heat, as former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has shrunk to a single point.
More At Rasmussen Reports:https://t.co/LPYUyUhWlb pic.twitter.com/Nyxq76UV5p
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 5, 2024
🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump is now leading Kamala Harris by 6 points in the Rasmussen poll. This comes shortly after polling expert Nate Silver explained Kamala Harris is starting to steadily decline in the national and swing state averages. pic.twitter.com/pBG9YGWfnW
— Philip Anderson (@VoteHarrisOut) September 6, 2024
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