Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds a narrow edge over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, leading 51% to 49% in a new The Argument/Verasight poll released this week.
Notably, however, the result falls within the 2.7-point margin of error, effectively making the race a statistical tie. The poll of 1,521 registered voters was conducted between December 5 and 11. The margin of error was +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Although neither has formally announced a presidential bid, both are widely viewed as potential nominees, and Ocasio-Cortez’s slim edge over Vance suggests the 2028 race could be highly competitive, with no clear party advantage and progressive Democrats remaining nationally viable.
The survey found Vance leading among white voters, 57% to 43%, while Ocasio-Cortez held commanding advantages with Black voters at 79% and Hispanic voters at 64%.
The poll also showed gender and education divides, with 54% of men backing Vance and 56% of women favoring Ocasio-Cortez, while college-educated voters preferred Ocasio-Cortez 56% to 44%. It also found crossover support, with 8% of 2024 Trump voters saying they would back Ocasio-Cortez, while Vance is positioned to attract 5% of those who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris.
Recent hypothetical Democratic primary polls show Ocasio-Cortez trailing more established figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, underscoring that she is not the party’s frontrunner. In another hypothetical matchup, California Gov. Gavin Newsom led with 36%, while Vance and Ocasio-Cortez were tied at 34% each.
Presidential candidates are not expected to announce their plans until after the 2026 midterm elections.
🚨 NEW POLL 🚨
The Argument / Verasight
📅 Dec 5–Dec 112028 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUP
🟦 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 51%
🟥 JD Vance — 49%➡️ AOC +2 pic.twitter.com/imSQ4HKYn7
— AOC | Fan War Room (@AOCWarRoom) December 17, 2025
The Argument/Verasight poll | 12/5-12/11
Generic congressional ballot 2026
(Registered voters)
🟦 Democratic 50.6%
🟥 Republican 49.4%
—
(Probably/definitely vote)
🟦 Democratic 52.4%
🟥 Republican 47.6%Link to poll: https://t.co/8U68IzHqm1 pic.twitter.com/tMcNzyayF6
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) December 17, 2025
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