Islam is widely recognized as the fastest-growing major religion globally, primarily due to higher fertility rates and a younger population demographic, according to Pew Research Center studies; from 2010 to 2020, the Muslim population grew by 347 million, outpacing all other groups combined.
In the United States, Islam is also among the fastest-growing faiths, driven by immigration and slightly higher birth rates, with the Muslim population estimated at about 3.45 million (1.1% of the total) in 2017. Christianity, the dominant religion in the U.S., has been declining as a share of the population, dropping from 78% in 2007 to around 62-64% in recent surveys, influenced by generational shifts, secularization, and lower fertility rates among some Christian groups compared to the national average. Declining birth rates overall in the U.S., particularly among less religious and some Christian demographics, contribute to this trend, while religiously affiliated Americans tend to have more children on average.
Some theories speculate about a potential religious paradigm shift by 2050, suggesting that sustained Muslim growth through higher fertility and immigration could lead to Muslims becoming a significant or even majority group. However, reputable demographic projections from Pew Research Center estimate that by 2050, Muslims will comprise only about 2.1% of the U.S. population (around 8.1 million people), surpassing Jews as the second-largest non-Christian group but remaining a small minority. These projections account for current immigration patterns, fertility differentials (Muslim women averaging around 2.4-2.5 children versus the national 2.1), and age structures, with growth expected to slow as fertility rates converge. No mainstream studies indicate a realistic probability of Muslims becoming the majority in the U.S. by 2050, as Christians are projected to remain around two-thirds of the population, with the religiously unaffiliated growing fastest in share.
We want to ask you, the reader: do you believe the U.S. will be a Muslim majority country by 2050? Answer in our poll below and comment your thoughts on when it could be if not by 2050.
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