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With Election Day less than a week away, voters are actively casting ballots through early voting and mail-in options.
Betting markets are weighing in on which party may control Congress, as the House and Senate remain closely contested. Recently, thin majorities have characterized both chambers, with the GOP holding a narrow 222-213 edge in the House at the start of the 118th Congress, mirroring Democrats’ slim majority in the previous Congress.
In the Senate, Democrats hold a 51-49 majority, counting independents who align with them. Previously, the Senate was evenly split at 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes. Betting on Polymarket suggests narrow majorities will continue, with an 83% chance projected for a GOP majority in the Senate, though likely by a small margin.
Polymarket traders initially favored a 52-seat GOP majority in the Senate, with odds reaching 52% in early October but dropping to 25% recently. The subsequent likeliest outcome, with a 16% chance, is a 51-seat GOP majority. There’s also an 11% chance Republicans will win 49 or fewer seats, securing a narrow Democratic majority, and a 9% chance of a 50-50 tie, where the majority would depend on the party holding the vice presidency.
Just 2.42% to go and the prophecy will be fulfilled 😂 https://t.co/f8VF9VvEr6
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 30, 2024
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is signaling strong Republican momentum. Their odds of a full sweep—winning the US House, Senate, and presidency—have climbed to 48%. That’s nearly a 20 pct point jump in the last three weeks.
Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/hiJ3dE9NWn
— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) October 28, 2024
Polymarket traders see control of the House as nearly even, with House Democrats holding a 50% chance of winning a majority. However, in another market on the platform, there’s a 29% chance House Republicans could secure 230 or more seats—a more significant majority than in recent years. There’s also a 15% chance that Republicans could end with fewer than 200 seats, leaving Democrats with over 235 seats. BetUS similarly views House control as a toss-up but has Republicans as solid favorites for Senate control.
A “trifecta,” where one party controls both chambers of Congress and the presidency, occurred during the first two years of the last three administrations, with the party typically losing control in the midterms. Trifectas allow a party to pass budget-related policies through reconciliation, bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster rule. Currently, Polymarket traders estimate a 46% chance of a Republican trifecta with Trump winning alongside GOP congressional majorities and a 15% chance of a Democratic trifecta with Harris and a Democratic-led Congress.
Given the latest New York Times article on Polymarket, this seems like a good time to make clear:
• Polymarket is strictly non-partisan. We get told we’re Dem operatives and MAGA, depending on the day. Unfortunately the story is much less juicy, we’re just market nerds who… pic.twitter.com/jz87JiO6AH
— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) October 25, 2024
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