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Following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz officially launched their campaign as running mates, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll reveals a significant shift in Minnesota. Harris’ lead over Republican Donald Trump has been cut in half from a month ago.
The latest poll shows Harris ahead by five points, with 48% to Trump’s 43%, while 4% favor another candidate, and 5% remain undecided. Just a month earlier, Harris held a 10-point lead, 50% to 40%, in her first appearance as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Brian McClung, former communications director for Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, notes that while Kamala Harris is seeing a post-convention bump in national polls, the opposite trend appears in Minnesota, as reflected in the SurveyUSA poll. He believes this is where the race was expected to settle.
Former Minnesota DFL Party Chair Mike Erlandson concurs, suggesting that Harris’ earlier 10-point lead might have been due to excitement over President Joe Biden’s exit from the race. He adds that with both the Democratic and Republican conventions completed and Tim Walz now on the ballot, attention is focused, and a five-point lead in Minnesota is a positive sign for Harris.
The poll also highlights a significant gender gap: Harris leads women by 18 points (55% to 37%), while Trump leads men by six points (48% to 42%). Erlandson emphasizes that women, especially in swing districts, will be crucial in this election. McClung agrees, noting that Trump must narrow this gap to win Minnesota, recalling that Pawlenty was the last Republican to win statewide by doing well with suburban voters, particularly women.
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